In a shocking turn of events, Ethiopian government forces, with regional militias, turned back the rebel advancement, but many battles lie ahead as the country forges a path that will likely entrench divisions in the short term. In Ethiopia, we warned that the capacity of the state would be too stretched to contend with its myriad threats: this was evident as the TPLF/TDF and OLA/OLF-Shane insurgents threatened larger parts of the country throughout the year. However, in each case, the conflicts took on new dimensions in the past year and continue to devolve. Of the 10 conflicts we address here, half appeared on our list last year, and Ethiopia, Yemen, and the Sahel also appeared in our 2020 list. They further expose how the international community lacks the tools, cohesion, and approach to address the world’s longest and deadliest conflicts. They represent a failure of political agents, systems, and identities to create and sustain stability and to address threats. These conflicts are directed towards local, regional, and national challenges, not ideological poles or shared grievances. These trends have emerged as elites, armed groups, state forces, and civilians have grappled with volatile domestic politics, armed competition, splintered security forces, and impunity for the perpetrators of violence. What explains this continued decline in global stability? There is no unifying theme that links a violent insurrection in the United States, the rise of Islamic State affiliates across Africa, demonstrations against pandemic restrictions in Europe, the anti-coup local defense forces of Myanmar, mob violence in India, increased gang activity in Haiti, and attacks targeting civilians in Colombia. In 2022, we will be confronted with increased violence, demonstrations, and divisions.

In 2021, few conflicts ended, many continued, and some got markedly worse. These 10 cases are not just hotspots, but represent areas of new directions and patterns of violence, and where there have been major shifts in conflict dynamics.

Each year, ACLED identifies 10 conflicts or crisis situations around the world that are likely to worsen or evolve in the coming months.

Current armed conflicts on the world